Summary:
IMO Elon will sell Tesla (automotive) in about 2-3 yrs.
Why Sell Tesla?
IMO, Elon clearly sees the timeline to NHTSA level 6 (a world of robotic taxis & trucks).
http://www.sae.org/misc/pdfs/automated_driving.pdf Elon sees the Level 6 marketplace... it'll be an explosion of low cost robotic units that'll drive down car making profits, causing the weakest, slowest OEMs to die off. Surely, there will be lots of room for a 'boutique mobility experience', but, Elon is a GOAT, he's not here to be a niche player. IMO, Elon's passion is not building profits, it's breaking into new markets. Selling Tesla's car division to an OEM that will allow him to fund other GOAT projects (like that hyperloop
When would Elon sell Tesla?
Elon's knows that in 2016 he's the only OEM at Level 3, and he's got a 2-3yr head start.
Elon knows there is a 'learning period' where self-driving comes out of the lab and gets tested and broken in the real world. Elon's very very aggressive deployment of Level 3s gives him 90,000 Tesla's per year that are "LIVE", harvesting driving data, streamed to Tesla HQ. ALL of the vehicle data from 90,000 units driving 1,350,000,000 miles per year (that 1.3 billion miles) will give Tesla a giant head start.
Every time a Tesla driver slams on the brakes, swerves, or makes any defensive maneuver the algorithms will automatically see it and set aside that data
leading into the reaction for analysis.
Why would an OEM pay stupid money for Tesla?
You get an ocean of brilliant employees and it's culture of performance. You get 2-3 yr head start. Your investors get some of the Tesla glow (i.s. higher PE ratio).