Tesla Reality Check?

[craigh]

Tesla again On The Brink...

"The signs are everywhere, from the lack of demand, desperate price cutting, layoffs, closing-and-then-not-closing stores, closing service centers, cutting capex, rushed product announcements and a new effort to distract investors from the demand problem with hyperbole over (Tesla’s) autonomous driving capabilities...”

One of Elon's recent quotes is

I’ve always thought that the fundamental good of Tesla should be measured by the number of years by which it accelerates the transition to sustainable transport & energy.

I think he, any many others, will consider the acceleration of the industry his greatest success.
Tesla itself may not make it ultimately, but it's unquestionable that they've forced the entire industry to re-think both electric and technology in cars. There's also self-driving, but I think by the time we have real self-driving cars, it won't be because of what companies are doing right now.

 

[john.quinn]

... it's unquestionable that they've forced the entire industry to re-think both electric and technology in cars....

Devil's Advocate:

Is it? Electric Cars have been around for a long time. Perhaps, ultimately, it's the economics of the times that dictate adoption and success (as usual) or failure.

Isn't this kinda like saying "Digital Retailing" is accelerating the "curve" in automotive retail? It's not... it's a buzzword, a very good example of what happens when an industry tries to solve problems it doesn't understand. Sound familiar at all?


"Digital Retailing." "Tesla." Flashy. Buzzy. Cringeworthy. Confusing. Vague, at best.

 

[craigh]

The reason I make that argument is because he forced them to move faster. Yes, these companies were all working on electric cars, but Tesla redefined the price targets they should meet (even though Tesla failed to meet their expected prices), the features that should be included, the range they should be able to go, etc. There's also a huge factor that can be attributed to the Obama administration (and other foreign governments) mandating emission standards across an entire lineup of vehicles, but I do believe that Tesla forced the technology to move ahead faster. Especially when looking at battery technology and some of the legislation that was pushed ahead by Tesla saying "this is how it should be done".

I think the technology side was an even bigger push though. What Tesla does inside their cars with the giant touch screen, voice controls, built-in networking, etc - this set the bar very high for other luxury manufacturers. If you've sat in a premium Audi 2012-2018 you've seen what their best technology looks like and it's 10 years behind Tesla. Ford Sync was very cool and close to being the gold standard, now even they look like they're way behind.

This is why I've always argued that Elon should have picked a manufacturing partner and had someone build his cars properly.

 

[Alexander Lau]

Devil's Advocate:

Is it? Electric Cars have been around for a long time. Perhaps, ultimately, it's the economics of the times that dictate adoption and success (as usual) or failure.

I posted something on it from Jay Leno the other day. Electric vehicles have been around a while. I dunno..

https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a1609/4215940/

He does think it will all go electric and then there's the Saudis.

 

[Chris Cachor]

The thing with Tesla is they've changed how to play the game. You can order a car on your phone. They own the largest battery facility in the world. Their software engineering and design team run circles around their competitors. You're looking at a company run by engineering and design, and not sales and marketing and you can see it clearly in everything they do. Do you think GM would ship dog mode? Or Mary Berra answering customer messages on Twitter?

 

[craigh]

The thing with Tesla is they've changed how to play the game. You can order a car on your phone. They own the largest battery facility in the world. Their software engineering and design team run circles around their competitors. You're looking at a company run by engineering and design, and not sales and marketing and you can see it clearly in everything they do. Do you think GM would ship dog mode? Or Mary Berra answering customer messages on Twitter?

I agree with all of this. But the one thing they are not is professional manufacturers.
He has spent millions and millions of dollars making mistakes, building robots, etc.
He has had to repair so many vehicles for mistakes that the Ford's of the world fixed in the 80s.
He had to learn to paint cars properly. He had to learn how robots and humans can co-exist, which was one of his most costly mistakes.

I just wish he had taken all of the incredible technology, software and hardware that he has built and let someone else mass produce it.
Then he can focus on going to Mars and taking over space. I think that legacy will be tenfold his Tesla legacy if he is remotely successful.

 

[Chris Cachor]

I agree with all of this. But the one thing they are not is professional manufacturers.
He has spent millions and millions of dollars making mistakes, building robots, etc.
He has had to repair so many vehicles for mistakes that the Ford's of the world fixed in the 80s.
He had to learn to paint cars properly. He had to learn how robots and humans can co-exist, which was one of his most costly mistakes.

I just wish he had taken all of the incredible technology, software and hardware that he has built and let someone else mass produce it.
Then he can focus on going to Mars and taking over space. I think that legacy will be tenfold his Tesla legacy if he is remotely successful.

Whole heartedly agree with all of this. But who do you think would re-tool their line to do this? And at what cost? As far as I know there's no "co-packing" equivalent in auto manufacturing?

 

[craigh]

Whole heartedly agree with all of this. But who do you think would re-tool their line to do this? And at what cost? As far as I know there's no "co-packing" equivalent in auto manufacturing?

I think, not that many years ago, some of the big 3 companies would have jumped on it.
With all the money/subsidies the government gave Tesla, they could have resurrected Detroit.

I don't know that they would have been Tesla cars - maybe it would still be a Chevy Volt - but I think they could have pushed the industry even further.

 

[Chris Cachor]

I don't know that they would have been Tesla cars - maybe it would still be a Chevy Volt - but I think they could have pushed the industry even further.

I think manufacturing wise the OEMs have things pretty dialed - it's the parts that they've traditionally outsourced (software, electrical components) that they're going to have trouble competing with. A few key acquisitions by Tesla (Grohmann, Maxwell) I think will also put stress on other OEM's operations. I think I remember BMW being pretty livid about that deal.

To me this means the industry is going to be forced to consolidate as the overhead required to compete is mind boggling.

 

[john.quinn]

The thing with Tesla is they've changed how to play the game.

But they really haven't. That's like saying Fiddlehead has changed the way people drink beer. Sure some people like Fiddlehead. But walk into a Budweiser factory, and they say, "Fiddlewhat??" I mean, Tesla is nowhere near as successful as RC Cola.

Tesla plays their own game, and there's few people playing along, but they're not even in THE game, the real game.

Isn't that the very definition of Niche? I mean think about it... if it wasn't for the magnanimous personality, whose public speaking and predictions are as eloquent and vibrant as they are misleading and just plain wrong, would we have even noticed this company? I mean, how many other companies with zero marketshare get this much attention?