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Reading Tea Leaves: There's Change Coming...

Discussion in 'Off Topic & Everything Else' started by joe.pistell, Oct 5, 2018.

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  1. joe.pistell

    joe.pistell
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    Uncle Joe

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    1. Interest Rates now at 8-year highs.
    2. Used Car Prices to all-time highs
    3. Gasoline to 2 yr highs.
    This is a possible setup for the end of this amazing SAAR cycle we've been on and a shift in the market to service, service, service.

    [​IMG]

    upload_2018-10-5_9-0-6.png

    upload_2018-10-5_9-3-15.png
     
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  3. Alex Snyder

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    President Skroob

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    No doubt. It is just a matter of how hard the blow is in 2019/20.

    Another thing to consider is how many car buyers from 2016, 2017, and 2018 borrowed money on terms longer than 60 months in comparison to how many lessees there were. Every year we have the opportunity to sell around 16,000,000 cars into a population of 200,000,000 drivers. When we put a chunk of that population into negative equity situations for more than 3 years we do not do anyone a service.
     
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  4. john.quinn

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    The Fixed writing is clearly on the wall.... in invisible ink??? ;)
     
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  5. Eley Duke

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    Joe, you had posted, maybe several years ago, a graph from the 70's till present day, at the time, showing the SAAR related to the economy. Do you still have that.

    We certainly didn't see a 3rd quarter this year like we did last year and its a concern. In fact our area, Hampton Roads, never recovered like the rest of the country after 08/09. Being the largest military area, and not having any other outstanding industries like tech or banking or manufacture of large scale, this area has been effected by military cut backs after 2009.

    I agree, service is where it will be and you better figure how to have as much fixed absorption as possible to make it.
     
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    #4 Eley Duke, Oct 16, 2018
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
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  6. joe.pistell

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    Uncle Joe

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    How are sales going at your store(s)?
    I keep hearing from dealers that sales are very soft.


    p.s. Hi Eley! I just saw this post, I'll dig for that post you're referring to
     
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