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Basically in this model because each is a random variable, you'll notice for 4 states the probabilities add up to 400%. For your second question I think what you are getting at is the debate between Bayesian models and Markov models which is whether or not states/choices/outcomes should be thought of as independently and random (Markov) or if we should include some sort of historical information to define our probabilities (Bayesian). That said I put a huge asterix on all of this, I did good maths just like I did good englishes.