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I read your post back on wednesday and I have been thinking on it off/on Dan. I replicated the data from your chart (best I could).First things first, the correlation is -0.33 which doesn't reach the level of significance I would start to create a conspiratorial revolution about let alone go crazy over. That to me is >.60 or <-.60. The reason it is a weakish correlation is because you have to factor the significance of individual months change. The correlation of -0.33 factors this but I tired to represent it for you below in an easier way (since it is baked in).I took the change each month versus the prior month within each site and then took the absolute value of them after adding them together. This effectively shows the individual month variance in change in a relative way. There are only 6 out 15 month that have a relative rate of change greater than 0.5%.Long story short there is a weak correlation that is part of the randomness of all numbers in a dynamic system like this. Is their a variable that impacts this change, yes I am sure there are dozens that could absolutely be figured out with the underlying data. But we can't surmise that from the chart, honestly I wouldn't worry about it a second more either.[ATTACH=full]4581[/ATTACH]
I read your post back on wednesday and I have been thinking on it off/on Dan. I replicated the data from your chart (best I could).
First things first, the correlation is -0.33 which doesn't reach the level of significance I would start to create a conspiratorial revolution about let alone go crazy over. That to me is >.60 or <-.60. The reason it is a weakish correlation is because you have to factor the significance of individual months change. The correlation of -0.33 factors this but I tired to represent it for you below in an easier way (since it is baked in).
I took the change each month versus the prior month within each site and then took the absolute value of them after adding them together. This effectively shows the individual month variance in change in a relative way. There are only 6 out 15 month that have a relative rate of change greater than 0.5%.
Long story short there is a weak correlation that is part of the randomness of all numbers in a dynamic system like this. Is their a variable that impacts this change, yes I am sure there are dozens that could absolutely be figured out with the underlying data. But we can't surmise that from the chart, honestly I wouldn't worry about it a second more either.
[ATTACH=full]4581[/ATTACH]
