Let's Talk about the future markets and industries

[joe.pistell]

it's interesting how the 10 year treasury is up almost 20% since they started lowering the overnight rate... Thoughts??

Marcy, this is my 'oh shit' chart
What's This Chart? It's the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread - basically Wall Street's favorite recession predictor. When it goes negative (like now) and then turns positive, buckle up. Changes are coming.

Recent Evidence:
The yield curve is normalizing from its deepest inversion in decades (-0.8% in 2023). Every time this happened in modern history, it warned us about major economic shifts. Think 2008 Financial Crisis, 2000 Tech Bubble, and 1990s Recession.

Historical Pattern: This indicator has called EVERY major recession since 1980. Not sometimes. EVERY. TIME.​

Why Car Dealer's Should Care:

• Most dealers under 45 have never run a store in a true recession
• The Cheap money is gone, it caused dealers to create operational weaknesses

Remember: You're looking at decades of data here, this won't come over night. But... the best time to fix your roof is when the sun is shining. Our industry has been sunny for a long time. Storm clouds are gathering.


CAR SALES IS A ZERO SUM GAME.
The dealers who prepare NOW will not just survive - they'll thrive as laggard competitors wait for the good ol days to come back.

 

[joe.pistell]

Any idea what caused this stock to tank so hard since May?

MSOS is an ETF that tracks a basket of Marijuana stocks. (MSOX is 2x MSOS)


The pot biz is not federally allowed, so, banks cannot do business with these companies. If Washington passes laws to allow this in all states, KAPOW you've got a 10 bagger

Careful... It could go up in smoke
Read up, protect yourself: SAFER Banking Act: Marijuana May Soon Become a Bigger Deal

 

[poniboy1]

Any idea what caused this stock to tank so hard since May? I am certain there is a reason, but I have never followed it.

I believe we will be on a roller coaster for a few months of up and downs but over the next several months once Trump is in office we will see it start to strengthen. However even when it makes healthy gains like any market we will get consolidation periods. It also depends on the companies and there financials and of course a few other indicators.

 

[poniboy1]

Marcy, this is my 'oh shit' chart
What's This Chart? It's the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread - basically Wall Street's favorite recession predictor. When it goes negative (like now) and then turns positive, buckle up. Changes are coming.
View attachment 9230
Recent Evidence:
The yield curve is normalizing from its deepest inversion in decades (-0.8% in 2023). Every time this happened in modern history, it warned us about major economic shifts. Think 2008 Financial Crisis, 2000 Tech Bubble, and 1990s Recession.

Historical Pattern: This indicator has called EVERY major recession since 1980. Not sometimes. EVERY. TIME.​

Why Car Dealer's Should Care:

• Most dealers under 45 have never run a store in a true recession
• The Cheap money is gone, it caused dealers to create operational weaknesses

Remember: You're looking at decades of data here, this won't come over night. But... the best time to fix your roof is when the sun is shining. Our industry has been sunny for a long time. Storm clouds are gathering.


CAR SALES IS A ZERO SUM GAME.
The dealers who prepare NOW will not just survive - they'll thrive as laggard competitors wait for the good ol days to come back.

Great info thanks