I have a different perspective on this and it's probably somewhat radical, but I saw an interview with Sam Altman (from OpenAI) that basically said we're on a trend where the marginal cost of knowledge and energy are approaching zero. If anyone's spent time with ChatGPT v4 recently, we're already there on knowledge. Fusion reactors are not very far away. So between renewables, fusion, mini nuclear reactors, etc. we're reaching a point of energy *abundance*, not scarcity. So I think the transition away from combustion will initially be driven by the pace of innovation in industry but ultimately won't return because electric will be cheap and it will be everywhere.
In terms of EV's, what can be done today is pretty awesome. If you took away energy storage, electric makes the most sense in all applications due to it's simplicity and the fact there's no competitor in raw power output. There's a reason freight trains use traction motors with diesel generators. Battery technology is evolving pretty fast, and I think problems with mining, recyclability, weight, and energy density will be solved. It's still early days. Tesla has only been around just over a decade and look what they've accomplished in that time. They don't get mocked as much anymore.
And with that, I think there's going to be winners and losers. Building cars is tough, building electric cars is tougher. Not only that, it requires a lot of vertical integration. So I think we'll see some pretty large automakers fail and other entrants scale massively. And I think there'll continue to be tension between combustion/electric until battery technology gets to a point there's no looking back.
