TrueCar down -27.43%

[yagoparamo]

@JoePistell

You are totally wrong, you and I can blow $125M in dev in just a few months

 

[joe.pistell]

Another brutal day for TRUE investors yesterday...



Stefan,
TRUE investors are in the capitulation phase. Nearly all Investors lost their paper profits and are now upside down. Investor's emotions are on full-throttle, it tests everyone's discipline to weather the storm. Additionally, this news brings a new army of short-sellers that are making new positions, trying to profit from TRUE's problems. So, IMO be patient, the sellers are everywhere*. Mr Painter's new vision has a lot of work ahead AND it needs to produce a profit.

HTH
Joe
*tax loss sellers come in the 4th Q

p.s. Analysis by this hedgefund calls ABTL a better buy than TRUE.... gulp http://seekingalpha.com/article/3359435-profits-matter-why-this-isnt-the-bottom-for-truecar

 

[joe.pistell]

Woa, I didn't know that TrueCar took Sonic to court and Sonic lost.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150729006455/en/

What did TrueCar gain from Sonic's loss?

 

[Stefan]

Woa, I didn't know that TrueCar took Sonic to court and Sonic lost.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150729006455/en/

What did TrueCar gain from Sonic's loss?

I wonder how much Sonic lost besides the actual settlement... how many millions of dollars they spent over the years to brad "True Price"...

 

[ddavis]

I knew of a store that was the volume TrueCar dealership in that particular state. Glancing around, at the employees, you wish you were packing. They never sold a car at the TrueCar quoted price. They were selling over 100 TrueCar deals per month. If that is the norm for their volume stores, it explains a lot.

 

[joe.pistell]

 

[joe.pistell]

The TrueCar video Ad shows us how the shopper is suppose to use the tools...

(watch the shopper workflow closely!)

This is why the TRUECAR BIZ MODEL has a low conversion rate and why causing it's investors & Mr Painter headaches.

 

[joe.pistell]

@JoePistell is it time to buy TRUE?

Mr. Painter announced his resignation yesterday. http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-truecar-quarterly-results-20150806-story.html

Wall Street hates uncertainty, TRUE falls back to 52 week lows from Painter's quick announcement.


Mr Painter's departure may be EXACTLY the catalyst TrueCar needed.

Is it time to buy TRUE?

• WHO GETS PICKED AS CEO will make or break TRUE. He/She has to be skilled in turning around sinking ships. Can the new CEO re-invent TRUE into a win-win for shoppers and dealers?
• There are a lot of investors that are holding big losses. October tax loss selling is coming.

There's an old Wall Street saying: "Buy when there's blood in the streets". TRUE sure is bloody but a lot of uncertainty is ahead.


Disclaimer: I have no position in TRUE, nor, in any way am I saying that it's a buy.

 

[joe.pistell]

My 1st pass at TrueCar's cause for poor conversion rates and possibly insight into why car dealers are up in arms.

This analysis is quite revealing. Here's their pitch, step by step.






If I am correct, this is where and why the TrueCar product vision didn't fit the shopper's vision of the product.

Let's walk through the TrueCar message to the car shopper, step by step.









The TrueCar app says...


Question: WHAT DO YOU THINK THE SHOPPER WILL DO NEXT?

TrueCar says:



I have no proof what happens next, but, my 10yrs in the dealerships tells me that the shopper does not use the product to discover a dealer, they use the TrueCar product to give them confidence to negotiate & buy the car that's in front of them. If this is correct, then this maybe a cause of TrueCar's low conversion rate (the root cause of TRUE's problem).


Caveat: This workflow scenario I propose is pure conjecture. Only TrueCar's team has the data and knows the facts.

 

[joe.pistell]

This leads me to wonder, if you're a TrueCar dealer, are your TrueCar sales conquests from other dealers (as the TV ad portrays)?

Anyone?