Value of Predicting New Car Sales Volume

[ggarvin]

On the heels of +Bill Playford's Power of Misinformation, I noticed TrueCar posted their prediction for June 2012's automotive new car sales numbers. They "guessed" (isn't that what their prediction or analysis really is). First of all, their guess is offered 5 days before the month ends. Their prediction missed the mark by 3.4% - while that doesn't sound too terribly bad, let's remember it was only 5 days prior to the end of the month - what value is this prediction for anyone? Longer term analysis meant to make business decisions and planning can be useful but what value is guessing the sales numbers 5 days before month end? Is it an ego thing? Or just a way to get some press?

This isn't meant to beat up TrueCar, they certainly get enough of that and they aren't alone in playing in the guessing game.

Am I being too hard on them and the other "guessers"? Does anyone use that information in any useful way? And does anyone ever hold anyone accountable for their mis-guesses? Or is it like the weather guessers (fka forecasters).

http://blog.truecar.com/tag/sales-and-incentives-forecast/

http://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA8039273.PDF

 

[jssimonton]

The answer would appear to be that TrueCar has an ongoing campaign to be mentioned in the media. This guess may seem silly to anyone who understands the business, but to a media person (who likewise promotes a 7-day weather forecast as useful) this is advance knowledge so they can be "first at five", "always taking the lead", and say "see it here first". So, when some authority (credibility not actually required) issues a press release making some statement about the auto industry, there's going to be a group of news stations looking to fill time without having to send a reporter anywhere.

When you think about it, there aren't too many commercials for local news touting their ability to be second to the scene. How about, "If it happens here, it's news to us."