Calm down on COVID-19 fears

[Alexander Lau (blog)]

DJIA below 20,000.

19,898.92
−1,338.46 (6.30%)

down 36%...Boeing was $300 4 weeks ago...$93 last I saw today. fuckers need broken up but they won't be. they'll get their $60B - but here's the rub...they've spent $43B in stock buybacks over the last several years instead of making planes that people will fly or putting some rainy day money aside...fuck'em.

Delta parked 600 plans today...

this puppy's gonna leave some scars...wonder which chika will be stupid enough to name her kid Corona? kinda rhymes with Sheniqua...

 

[Retail My Ride]

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One Month Later:

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[Alexander Lau]

RBC warns coronavirus could cause 20% decline in US vehicle sales as auto stocks tank

The coronavirus and its ripple effects on consumer demand could send global auto production down as much as 16%, fueled by a 20% decline in U.S. sales, according to RBC Capital Markets.

www.cnbc.com

Morgan Stanley sees 9% U.S. car sales dip from coronavirus

Morgan Stanley <MS.N> expects the coronavirus outbreak will send U.S. auto sales down 9% this year, it said in an investor note on Wednesday. Before the outbreak, analysts had expected a modest decline of 1-2%.

www.reuters.com

Coronavirus Wrecked China's Car Sales, and America Is Probably Next
How the pandemic's supply chain disruptions and chilling effect on car buyers could spell trouble for U.S. auto sales.

Uber, Lyft Commit To Supporting Drivers With Coronavirus - MotorTrend

COVID-19 is causing a lot of uncertainty around the safety of ride sharing, but Uber and Lyft have committed to helping their drivers who fall ill.

www.motortrend.com

Buyers Staying Home
It may not matter, though, if customers stay home. Individual outbreaks and precautionary measures like bans on large gatherings across the country will keep potential car buyers out of showrooms. Dealers in affected areas are already reporting lower foot traffic. Even areas not yet touched by the coronavirus are seeing smaller crowds at dealerships as people avoid public areas and practice social distancing.

More than just a fear of catching the virus, many people are likely to put off a major purchase over economic uncertainty. After all, a car is the second-most expensive purchase the average person makes in their life behind a house. While the economy hasn't crashed as of this writing, Wall Street has had several of its worst days on record in just the past week and the cancellation of major festivals and sporting events will have a noticeable economic impact. With a great deal of uncertainty over the state of the economy, consumers are likely to keep their money in savings until things get better, just as they did during the Great Recession. If people start losing their jobs or the country falls into a serious recession, it will only exacerbate the downturn in car sales.

 

[Alex Snyder]

You are dying for attention today, huh @Alexander Lau?

 

[Alexander Lau]

You are dying for attention today, huh @Alexander Lau?

Just bored, plus you posted it, too damn easy... and that's optimistic - who the fuck is going to buy cars coming out of this thing when they're broke?

*Back to being bored, yeah this site is definitely boring... meh, outta' here.

 

[Alex Snyder]

You posted it, too damn easy... and that's optimistic - who the fuck is going to buy cars coming out of this thing when they're broke?

You 100% miss the point. And I don't feel like explaining it to you because you are hell-bent on being a total asshole. Many of the other automotive communities have asked us why we haven't banned you yet - the ones who have given you the boot. You're making it awfully tempting with your other posts today.

 

[Alexander Lau]

You 100% miss the point. And I don't feel like explaining it to you because you are hell-bent on being a total asshole. Many of the other automotive communities have asked us why we haven't banned you yet - the ones who have given you the boot. You're making it awfully tempting with your other posts today.

Oh no... I got the point and don't really care. I'm pretty damn sure my credentials still work on the other forums. Chances are you'll find nothing but the elderly and noobs pestering those waters and no one in between with very little practical knowledge indeed. I'm entitled to my opinion on Pasch, etc. You talk shit on him and then act like he's worthy. Give me a break dude.

 

[john.quinn]

Just bored, plus you posted it, too damn easy... and that's optimistic - who the fuck is going to buy cars coming out of this thing when they're broke?

Smart people who recognize a deal and their sudden IMMENSE buying power.

 

[Alexander Lau]

Smart people who recognize a deal and their sudden IMMENSE buying power.

For your sake, I hope you're right and I'm being serious. I just don't see it. Call me a smart ass if you will, but it's tanking.

As the virus spreads, it will continue to have a negative impact on the auto industry, said Jeff Schuster, LMC president of global vehicle forecasts, adding, “volatility will remain with us until there is evidence of containment globally, and the lasting effect could spill into 2021.”

 

[john.quinn]

For your sake, I hope you're right and I'm being serious. I just don't see it. Call me a smart ass if you will, but it's tanking.

Well of course it's tanking now -- when the tornado hits, people hunker down. When it passes, they come out of the basement.

AS said it well above: worse than the actual virus right now is the FEAR of the virus. That FEAR will not last - people will adjust to the new normal -- and they will adjust relatively quickly. Right now the tornado is swirling in the sky directly overhead.

While the actual virus numbers haven't yet peaked the actual friggin RHETORIC meter is off the charts -- the fear and panic far outweighs the actual consequences of the virus.

And let's be real: the political nature of the national narrative is in full swing -- one Leader is doing his/her best to outdo his/her neighbor leader, lest they be pegged/viewed/blasted "complacent" by the media. All the while, the doomsday profits who make a living drawing eyeballs for clicks are having a field day... there is a monetized, vested interest in panic. That "panic money model" is very real. Fucking morons like Bill Ackman stoking the flame, driving the panic, laughing all the while as he's Buying Low.

NOW is when we need to heed the immortal words of Aaron Rodgers: