PR & News Stay at Home Order by State for Auto Dealers

[Alexander Lau]

And they broke the economy for this?

So far, total death data is too preliminary to know if there has been any significant increase in total deaths as a result of COVID-19, and this is an important metric, because it gives us some insight into whether or not COVID-19 is driving total death numbers well above what would otherwise be expected.

As Lee notes, total COVID-19 deaths could still increase significantly this season, but even then we must ask what percentage of total deaths warrants an international panic. Is it 5 percent? Ten percent? The question has never been addressed, and so far, a figure of 1 percent of total deaths in some places is being treated as a reason to forcibly shut down the global economy.

In March, US Deaths from COVID-19 Totaled Less Than 2 Percent of All Deaths | Ryan McMaken

About 2.9 million people die in the United States each year from all causes. Monthly this total ranges from around 220,000 in the summertime to more than 280,000 in winter. In recent decades, flu season has often peaked sometime from January to March, and this is a major driver in total deaths.

mises.org

 

[Jeff Kershner]

And they broke the economy for this?

So far, total death data is too preliminary to know if there has been any significant increase in total deaths as a result of COVID-19, and this is an important metric, because it gives us some insight into whether or not COVID-19 is driving total death numbers well above what would otherwise be expected.

As Lee notes, total COVID-19 deaths could still increase significantly this season, but even then we must ask what percentage of total deaths warrants an international panic. Is it 5 percent? Ten percent? The question has never been addressed, and so far, a figure of 1 percent of total deaths in some places is being treated as a reason to forcibly shut down the global economy.

In March, US Deaths from COVID-19 Totaled Less Than 2 Percent of All Deaths | Ryan McMaken

About 2.9 million people die in the United States each year from all causes. Monthly this total ranges from around 220,000 in the summertime to more than 280,000 in winter. In recent decades, flu season has often peaked sometime from January to March, and this is a major driver in total deaths.

mises.org

I'm not sure it's fair to compare COVID-19 deaths to ALL deaths. Comparing it to FLU / Respiratory related deaths would be a much better comparison. Also - what effect did the current response measurements (social distancing, closing and such) have on the results? Not sure that it's possible to even answer that question.

 

[Chicagosteve]

Thank you so much for posting this!!

 

[ed.brooks]

Good news out of Michigan @kimberlyvo

Governor loosens Michigan auto dealership shutdown to allow online sales

The state had been one of only four that banned all new-car sales during the coronavirus lockdown

www.detroitnews.com

 

[Alexander Lau]

This is starting to smell more and more like a ton of bullshit... and it crushed the economy and automotive retail and vendors and don't say... oh it's better to be safe than sorry. I call BS, the numbers don't jive.

USA 0.17% infection rate/3.9% mortality
Columbus 0.106%/1.5%
Pittsburgh 0.285%/2.2%
NYC 1.229%/6.7%
NJ 0.692%/3.8%

22,115 US deaths

16,800,000 unemployed as of Friday, Iran is now freer than we are, starting to reopen their country. This is just public health affirmative action.
yep - all makes sense


Yes, I'm bored and a friend calculated it all via spreadsheet, if you want it??

 

[ChrisR]

All these numbers are off of "reported" cases - a lot of places *REFUSE* to test, unless you are showing severe symptoms. A number of deaths have been attributed to CoVID-19, without testing, because, they're dead & possibly had it anyway.

This whole thing seems to be more social, than viral, in it's danger.

 

[Alexander Lau]

The only thing you can guarantee, the model will break.

Hey! Let’s check the calibration of some coronavirus forecasts.

Hey! Let’s check the calibration of some coronavirus forecasts. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

"I am part of an international group of statisticians and infectious disease/epidemiology experts. We have recently investigated the statistical predictive performance of the UW-IHME model for predicting daily deaths in the US. We have found that the predictions for daily number of deaths provided by the IHME model have been highly inaccurate."

 

[Alexander Lau]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...-interview-with-surgeon-general-jerome-adams/

Data vs. Models: The Coronavirus Task Force is now working with real-time data about the country, Adams said, instead of the predictive models that were criticized for being overblown and exaggerated.

So they're using real time numbers now... based on Johns Hopkins

1. US infection rate = 0.185% (up from 0.17% two days ago)
2. US mortality = 4.3% (up from 3.9%)
3. US cases = 609,685
4. US unemployed = 16.8MM (and growing)
5. NY/NJ rates dropped fractionally vs. rest of the country but still have 30% of the cases and 41% deaths

I know, I know - they'll say it's working and we need more testing and more draconian measures. I say it's a circular argument. If you test everyone your infection rate will go up but your mortality will drop

UE rates will almost assuredly top 20MM this week. The question is does it break 25MM? I'd say 23MM is distinctly possible. There's a bigger wave out there that they should be worried about... the consequences from that wave are much more dire.

 

[Alex Snyder]

COVID Conspiracies

In order to keep a very valuable thread from degenerating more, let's take our conspiracy theory ideas to this thread. I am looking at you @Alexander Lau :poke: With that said, I LOVE :heart: a good conspiracy theory! Educational soap operas FTW. They're especially great on the 4CHAN...

forum.dealerrefresh.com

Please use this thread ^ for conspiracy theories to allow the incredible resource provided by @kimberlyvo and her team to flourish.

 

[wallmann]

Any dealer that was hurt by Covid, in just about any way, can go back and claim $26,000 per W2 employee for 2020 and/or 2021.

If your CPA is still not convinced let them know the ERC was made available under section 3134 of the Internal Revenue Code (Code), enacted by section 9651 of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (the ARP). Let them do their homework while you go to ERC and collect your money. The choice is yours. The benefit was first $33,000 per W2 employee, but in late 2021, it was reduced to $26,000. Who knows when they will lower it again????