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Tesla Reality Check?

Discussion in 'Automotive News, Press Releases, and Events' started by BradyFerron, Nov 16, 2016.

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  1. BradyFerron

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  3. joe.pistell

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    "From Enron to Bernie Madoff, at the end of every great American financial scandal, the totality of the perpetrators’ greed seems to be matched only by the public’s incredulity at how such a thing could be allowed to happen..."

    Brady,
    The first sentence revealed an article written by a spin doctor. IMO, everything past this sentence, right or wrong, is to be suspect.

    Where ever there is sophisticated spin like this, there's an org behind it... yup... http://www.energyandpolicy.org/rene...cks-report-2015/taxpayer-protection-alliance/
     
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  4. BradyFerron

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    Joe,

    Fair point. Clearly the org has an agenda. I think the piece brings up the point of the economics of Tesla and if their model can survive without government subsidies. While a drop to zero is not likely, at some point, Tesla has to make their model work.
     
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  5. joe.pistell

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    Agreed. But 1st, let's start with Elon Musk... the man.
    Make no doubt about it, Elon is on his way to becoming a GOAT (Greatest Of All Time). He dares to dream big and take enormous financial chances. Look at SpaceX "I want to go to Mars" Or, just this week "SPACEX will launch 5,000 satellietes to supply low cost Internet" http://fortune.com/2016/11/17/spacex-satellite-network-fcc-global-internet/

    Summary:
    IMO Elon will sell Tesla (automotive) in about 2-3 yrs.

    Why Sell Tesla?
    IMO, Elon clearly sees the timeline to NHTSA level 6 (a world of robotic taxis & trucks). http://www.sae.org/misc/pdfs/automated_driving.pdf Elon sees the Level 6 marketplace... it'll be an explosion of low cost robotic units that'll drive down car making profits, causing the weakest, slowest OEMs to die off. Surely, there will be lots of room for a 'boutique mobility experience', but, Elon is a GOAT, he's not here to be a niche player. IMO, Elon's passion is not building profits, it's breaking into new markets. Selling Tesla's car division to an OEM that will allow him to fund other GOAT projects (like that hyperloop ;-)

    When would Elon sell Tesla?
    Elon's knows that in 2016 he's the only OEM at Level 3, and he's got a 2-3yr head start. Elon knows there is a 'learning period' where self-driving comes out of the lab and gets tested and broken in the real world. Elon's very very aggressive deployment of Level 3s gives him 90,000 Tesla's per year that are "LIVE", harvesting driving data, streamed to Tesla HQ. ALL of the vehicle data from 90,000 units driving 1,350,000,000 miles per year (that 1.3 billion miles) will give Tesla a giant head start. Every time a Tesla driver slams on the brakes, swerves, or makes any defensive maneuver the algorithms will automatically see it and set aside that data leading into the reaction for analysis.


    Why would an OEM pay stupid money for Tesla?
    You get an ocean of brilliant employees and it's culture of performance. You get 2-3 yr head start. Your investors get some of the Tesla glow (i.s. higher PE ratio).


    That was a fun morning exercise :-)
    Joe

    p.s. Elon is an immigrant... think about it.
     
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    #4 joe.pistell, Nov 18, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2016
  6. Alex Snyder

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    Now that's an interesting theory. I like it!
     
  7. Jeff Kershner

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    Uncle Joe and his al crystal ball.... love it.
     
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  8. joe.pistell

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    Front page-able?
     
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  9. BradyFerron

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    Fascinating. Remember though that Musk gave away a lot of the Intellectual Property - https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you
    Potential buyers would have to include - Chinese auto players, Apple - not sure I see an entrenched OEM making a move but time will tell. To your point, Joe, the OEM that would, would be one of the laggards...
     
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  10. joe.pistell

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    This weekend, spend some time inside the mind of a GOAT.

    For context, I purposely started the interview a few mins before it came time to talk about cars...

    Yup... You're watching the mind that comes around once in a generation.
     
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  11. BradyFerron

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    No doubt - I saw him speak in Detroit of all places... he was fascinating. Thanks for sharing the video - great stuff.

    Check this piece from Wired, emphasizes the future of Tesla is around energy vs manufacturing vehicles.

    https://www.wired.com/2016/06/tesla-solar-city-elon-musk/
     
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