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Uncle Joe's Make Over Diary

Dealers or Vendors. Looking for a great manager or leader to run your department or your business?? BEWARE A DARING LEADER THAT HAS YET TO FAIL... miserably.

Lessons learned from The JC Penny Train Wreck.

If you haven't heard, JCP's CEO is Ron Johnson,is BLOWING UP the company. He's created a master plan and is executing it without any business discipline.

Ron Johnson was the wonderboy, he's enjoyed big wins in the past, he's had big wins at Target and his work at Apple made all around him stand in awe.

Ron Johnson marched into JCP and saw the "stupid retail pricing game" where prices are so high, they support sales where shoppers get "70% off, plus coupons for an additional 10% off AND another coupon for 15% off".

FAILURE #1). Ron saw this as madness, when in fact it REWARDS the female Shopper's DNA.
FAILURE #2). Ron missed Uncle Joe Rule #122: "Just because it's a good idea, doesn't mean it'll work".


It's a great read
"JCPenney, the storied if unglamorous retailer, is in trouble. Big trouble. Fourth-quarter earnings results came out on Wednesday and they were terrible. The bad news starts with a quarterly loss of $427 million, but it doesn’t end there. Comparable store sales—meaning stores that were open this past quarter and also open in the same quarter of the previous year—fell by a mind-boggling 32 percent. Henry Blodget says it may have been the worst quarter posted by any retailer ever.

I see some parallels in our industry. New sales ideas and processes are coming in. Some require a dealer to hire a new guy and throw everything out to execute the new plan. If you ever get yourself into this place, EMBRACE YOUR RECRUIT'S FAILURES and look into how they've moved these painful lessons into their game plan.

If your candidate is a winner, look into their past failures as though it was pre-paid insurance.
 
Dealers or Vendors. Looking for a great manager or leader to run your department or your business?? BEWARE A DARING LEADER THAT HAS YET TO FAIL... miserably.

Lessons learned from The JC Penny Train Wreck.

If you haven't heard, JCP's CEO is Ron Johnson,is BLOWING UP the company. He's created a master plan and is executing it without any business discipline.

Ron Johnson was the wonderboy, he's enjoyed big wins in the past, he's had big wins at Target and his work at Apple made all around him stand in awe.

Ron Johnson marched into JCP and saw the "stupid retail pricing game" where prices are so high, they support sales where shoppers get "70% off, plus coupons for an additional 10% off AND another coupon for 15% off".

>snip<

...EMBRACE YOUR RECRUIT'S FAILURES and look into how they've moved these painful lessons into their game plan.

If your candidate is a winner, look into their past failures as though it was pre-paid insurance.

JCP's new CEO Ron Johnson is shit canned and JCP is in damage control mode


Great Business lessons in this story.
 
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-compare that to-

Google Trends*, Search Volume for phrases related to Vehicle Maintenance, from 2004 to date

Google Trends Service Queries.jpg

Clearly an epic shift in automobile owner behavior. The 08-09 financial crisis looks to be the catalyst. This clearly shows that folks are shoveling cash into their existing cars and stalling off the purchase of a new ride.


A little bit of research validates this
average%20age%20and%207%20years.ashx

Schaumburg, Ill., June 27, 2012Experian Automotive today announced that there were 17.3 million more light-duty vehicles seven years and older on the road in the United States than there were three years ago.
http://press.experian.com/United-St...-united-states-increased-by-more-than-17.aspx
 
It's validated again with looking at the stock valuations of publicly traded Automotive repair stores. Below is a chart that compiles the Repair Center* valuations:
AutoRepairStocks.jpg
This is just a 6 month chart, but, it's at all time highs.

*Companies are:
AAP: Advanced Auto Parts
GPC: Genuine Auto Parts
AZO: AutoZone
MNRO: Monro Muffler
PBY: Pep Boys
...and a few more.
 
Crystal Balling with Uncle Joe.


Google Trends*, Search Volume for phrases related to Vehicle Sales, from 2004 to date
View attachment 1624
Clear down trend ending in the 08-09 financial crisis. Interesting how we're under a giant rebound in sales, yet no rebound in search volume.
Google Trends

Can we break that out into regions across the United States?
 
So, we've got a lot of cars on the road getting older and folks are fixing them more.

When about think about it, it's logical.

If you look at the Polk Chart below, in 1995, the average car was BUILT in 1986.
20120117-tablea.jpg

https://www.polk.com/company/news/average_age_of_vehicles_reaches_record_high_according_to_polk

I was building custom cars back in '86 and let me tell you they were a P.O.S.
1986-1988_Ford_Taurus_sedan.jpg


In the 80's, I laughed at Subaru's ridiculous odometer that went to 6 digits. Back in the day, IF a car made it past 99,999 the odometer "rolled over" & that was a sign of death on a car.

So, fast fwd to today, we're in 2013, so this means the avg car on the road was built in 2002 and these cars are light years better than was made in '86.
taurusspeed.jpg


We all know todays cars of 2013 are far superior to the cars of 2002, so this means the trend of "older cars getting older" will continue. This also means they'll hold their value longer, this also means "retailable trade-ins" will be getting closer and closer to 5 9's (99,999 miles).
 
Ron Johnson is shit canned and JCP is in damage control mode

Great Business lessons in this story.

I was having this same conversation the other day. You've got to loose a few times before you can truly become a winner.

Most of your best MMA fighters (true campaigns) lost a few fights before making it to the top. It's the fights they lost and learned from that allowed them to excel in their game.

I almost feel bad for JCP after watching their damage control commercials. Basically begging people to come back.