- Apr 7, 2009
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What ways could dealers be more transparent, IDEAS anyone?
- Thread starter Jeff Kershner
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Sad that they haven't made a profit? Naww... Investors who seek to own disruption see way past profits. Profits come late in the cycle. Think Tesla vs GM.
Tesla's market cap is way too high. 31 billion? Please.
GM's market cap is 45 billion. It simply doesn't make sense.
Tesla claims they'll be profitable in 2020 when they can sell 500,000 cars a year. Although I see and understand the valuation, I think it's a bubble. Until Musk comes out with a strategy that involves him understanding China I just don't see this valuation as sensible.
I'm not a Tesla/Musk believer because I know enough extremely intelligent electrical engineers in the solar and battery space who said that the cars and the house battery are both too premature and will never pay themselves off. It's a luxury brand that pretends to have a financial benefit IMHO.
If Elon steps down from the automotive stuff after the Model 3 then it's going to get even more interesting. He's the Steve Jobs of that company.
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Telsa's valuation has always been nuts, right from it's 1.3 billion IPO. http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital...-valued-at-133-billion-ahead-of-tuesdays-ipo/
Since Tesla's IPO, it's sold just a few cars and GM's sold ~100million cars. Rational minds (like mine & yours) missed a 23 bagger in Tesla ($10,000 grows to $230,000
while GM is -23% since they came out of government control 5 yrs ago.
Yes, Blockbuster failed but like it has been observed here, Netflix still doesn't make a profit. Walmart does, Amazon doesn't. There is a lot of fools gold out there to buy. For every success story based on breakthrough technology I can provide a thousand that crashed and burned. Or, I can just post the video I took on the NADA floor from 1993. The Saturn method was going to take over retail auto and the expo floor was full of $100K booths that weren't around a year later.
When you are fronting your own money, you tend to be a little more cautious. For those of you who want to bet your own farm on the future of auto retail, it might help if you knew if the FTC is going to change. If they don't, you're stuck with negotiation even if you want to pretend that you aren't doing it. Most of what I see out there are people who want to bet somebody elses farm on some change for the sake of change. I've tried to sell some of my own "future technology" and know how difficult it can be. But I've been watching this idea of trying to do business based on how consumers answer surveys for decades now. And nothing has changed. It never gets over the hump. Sending people to Disney and Apple stores doesn't make auto retail anything like them.
When you are fronting your own money, you tend to be a little more cautious. For those of you who want to bet your own farm on the future of auto retail, it might help if you knew if the FTC is going to change. If they don't, you're stuck with negotiation even if you want to pretend that you aren't doing it. Most of what I see out there are people who want to bet somebody elses farm on some change for the sake of change. I've tried to sell some of my own "future technology" and know how difficult it can be. But I've been watching this idea of trying to do business based on how consumers answer surveys for decades now. And nothing has changed. It never gets over the hump. Sending people to Disney and Apple stores doesn't make auto retail anything like them.
- Apr 7, 2009
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ruggles,
Rewind the clocks 100yrs ago and there were 100's & 100's of automobile companies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States Using your business logic, where would it lead you?
Defending your cash is always wise, but, exploring ways to profit from change is simply another way to defend your cash (think Kodak).
Thankfully, disruption rarely happens over night. If you surround yourself with wize players, you can see it coming years before it threatens to blow up your pile of cash.
Follow the work of Dr Clay Christensen and it'll be a lens from which you can see into the future.
RE: "Using your business logic, where would it lead you?"
To make sure I'm riding the fastest horse in the race.
RE: "Thankfully, disruption rarely happens over night. If you surround yourself with wize players, you can see it coming years before it threatens to blow up your pile of cash."
No kidding. Learning from the mistakes of others might help. Think Priceline, Saturn, Ford Collection, etc. etc. But if you want to tell us where things are heading with some specificity, I'd sure like to know.
To make sure I'm riding the fastest horse in the race.
RE: "Thankfully, disruption rarely happens over night. If you surround yourself with wize players, you can see it coming years before it threatens to blow up your pile of cash."
No kidding. Learning from the mistakes of others might help. Think Priceline, Saturn, Ford Collection, etc. etc. But if you want to tell us where things are heading with some specificity, I'd sure like to know.
- Apr 7, 2009
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ruggles,
I'll go one better. It's far more valuable for you learn "how to see" into the future. Watch this video. It might be the most important 8 minutes of your next ten years in business.
I get your a car guy, this heady crap isn't for you, but, if you truly want to defend your cash, you need to have an "Andy Grove moment". This won't make sense unless you give up 8 minutes of your life and see the whole video.
You won't understand me and where I'm going until that video makes sense.
Clayton Christensen is brilliant in his area of expertise and his books are fascinating to read.
I absolutely +1 Joe's recommendation, even if you don't think it applies to you it's a great read.
I had it on my list of recommended reads and I don't know that it will ever become irrelevant.
http://forum.dealerrefresh.com/threads/must-reads.4476/#post-38810
I absolutely +1 Joe's recommendation, even if you don't think it applies to you it's a great read.
I had it on my list of recommended reads and I don't know that it will ever become irrelevant.
http://forum.dealerrefresh.com/threads/must-reads.4476/#post-38810
- Dec 2, 2009
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I haven't read the whole thread, so apologies in advance is this is redundant -- and honestly, it's mostly Alex's idea anyway, but...
What if dealers and consumers used the same tools -- and knew it? The same search, the same trade appraisal tools -- the same Pencil tool.
There's something to be said for (so-called) "empowering" consumers -- they search and appraise and figure their own payments already -- what if we gave them better tools, and they see the Agents/Managers using the same tools in the store?
Seems that scenario would add a layer of transparency...
What if dealers and consumers used the same tools -- and knew it? The same search, the same trade appraisal tools -- the same Pencil tool.
There's something to be said for (so-called) "empowering" consumers -- they search and appraise and figure their own payments already -- what if we gave them better tools, and they see the Agents/Managers using the same tools in the store?
Seems that scenario would add a layer of transparency...
