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TAKE POLL The Coming Self-Driving Car Disruption

When will new car dealers first feel the impact of autonomous vehicles?

  • Never!

    Votes: 1 3.1%
  • They're already feeling it, they just don't know it.

    Votes: 5 15.6%
  • 1-3 Years

    Votes: 2 6.3%
  • 4-6 Years

    Votes: 12 37.5%
  • 7-10 Years

    Votes: 8 25.0%
  • Sometime after 2026

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • Total voters
    32

Steve Stauning

Jr. Refresher
Mar 15, 2012
242
192
43
Coeur d'Alene, Idaho
First Name
Steve
I wonder if anyone has already or wants to change their vote now that the autonomous Budweiser delivery has been made?

This might be moving faster than even the most optimistic predictions indicated just a year or two ago.
 
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joe.pistell

Uncle Joe
Apr 7, 2009
4,011
1,535
113
New York
First Name
Joe
Steve,

This turn out of the parking lot looks very sloppy.
upload_2016-11-7_20-13-43.png

Theres lots of work to do before self-driving becomes ready to roll out.
 

Steve Stauning

Jr. Refresher
Mar 15, 2012
242
192
43
Coeur d'Alene, Idaho
First Name
Steve
Theres lots of work to do before self-driving becomes ready to roll out.
Agreed. And even when this first starts to impact dealers, it could take many years before the threat becomes truly disruptive in terms of shuttering any new car dealerships.

4 people voted that dealers won't START feeling an impact from this until sometime after 2026. That's a lifetime when it comes to technological advances... just curious if they want to change their votes...
 
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joe.pistell

Uncle Joe
Apr 7, 2009
4,011
1,535
113
New York
First Name
Joe
When will new car dealers first feel the impact of autonomous vehicles?

Robotic Level 3.

upload_2016-11-11_6-5-44.png
Once OEMs are shipping Level 3, I estimate this will begin 10-15 of the best years of selling cars.
 

joe.pistell

Uncle Joe
Apr 7, 2009
4,011
1,535
113
New York
First Name
Joe
How will we know 'the end is near'? When Level 5 comes, you'll know the end is near.

upload_2016-11-11_6-12-34.png

Level 5 cars are robots that will create 'on demand travel' (i.e. robotic taxis).


The Bad.
2020: You'll see all sorts of 'robotic mobility networks' pop up. Big money* will buy fleets of Level 5's and deploy them on a city by city basis.
2023: Once these 'mobility networks' become ubiquitous (like Uber is), --and-- if the robots can get you around town cheaply, your monthly payment customers will disappear.​

The Good.
2020: Your customers will buy a Level 5 car from you with the intent to profit from his robot when he's not using it (i.e. uber). Also, What a great level 3 & level 4 used car market we'll have.
2023: Millions of empty robots running around will cause local government to highly regulate & tax robotic taxis. It will get so bad that governments will reward HOVs (think uberPOOL).​

2028?
Robotic 'mobility networks' are competing against each other, driving costs lower. Effortless travel & lower costs cause more consumption. Local governments will create regulations to reduce congestion and create new tax streams (the sales tax loss alone will be devastating).​


That was fun :)
-Uncle Joe



*Big money will be running into this space, like:
-Entrepreneurs (e.g. Uber, Lyft, etc), and...
-OEMs will create 'mobility brands' to sell on-demand travel direct to the user.
-Giant companies that excel at logistics
-Robotic RV's will threaten short haul Airlines
-and on and on and on....
 

Alexander Lau

Sr. Refresher
Feb 11, 2015
2,416
720
113
Mars, PA
First Name
Alex
I see them all day, every day. They drive by my house.

Pittsburgh has finally realized it’s in a toxic relationship with Uber
https://qz.com/904744/pittsburgh-officials-are-criticizing-ubers-one-way-relationship-with-the-city/

The funny thing, Ford just threw a cool $1B (over five years) at Argo.

Ford invests $1 billion in Pittsburgh-based Argo AI to build self-driving cars by 2021
https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/18/f...d-argo-ai-to-build-self-driving-cars-by-2021/

Again, right outside my window.
 

Steve Stauning

Jr. Refresher
Mar 15, 2012
242
192
43
Coeur d'Alene, Idaho
First Name
Steve
We posted this poll in August of 2016 and most respondents felt that dealers would BEGIN to feel the impact of self-driving cars in 4-6 years.

That means 2020-2022.

Looks like most respondents were probably correct. With GM's announcement yesterday, it seems clear OEMs will bypass dealers (GM is even creating a new brand for their all-electric autonomous fleet) and they will be the fleet owners & managers:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/gm-thinks-it-can-make-billions-in-the-ride-hailing-business.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/gm-...-services-with-self-driving-cars-by-2019.html

(I warned about this in September 2015: http://askthemanager.com/2015/09/self-driving-cars-the-winners-and-the-losers/)

If I was a dealer, the biggest question I would have is what is the National Automobile Dealers Association doing to protect dealers from the loss of business that an OEM-owned, all-electric fleet will surely bring?
 
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Reactions: Jeff Kershner

Alexander Lau

Sr. Refresher
Feb 11, 2015
2,416
720
113
Mars, PA
First Name
Alex
Cruise Cuts AV Test Drivers As Pandemic Drags On; CFO Steps Down

Amidst the news of wide-reaching layoffs of its 1,800-employee workforce, less discussed was the departure of Cruise’s CFO. Geoffrey Richardson has quietly stepped down from his role as CFO for the self-driving start-up, confirmed company spokesperson Milin Mehta.

Update: Cruise contacted Forbes to state that the reduction of its full-time workforce was unrelated to the pandemic. "Even with our COVID relief program, we still have fewer vehicles on the road, given that, it makes sense why we would need fewer AVTOs," clarified spokesperson Milin Mehta, and reiterated, “No AVTO was let go because they were critical of procedures during the pandemic.”
 
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Reactions: Jeff Kershner
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