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Uncle Joe's Make Over Diary

joe.pistell

Uncle Joe
Apr 7, 2009
4,250
1,740
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First Name
Joe
Wow,
This diary is filled with some cool sh*t. @reverson I'd love you to REV up yours ;-)

Uncle Joe's Coffee Thoughts:
Manheim UV Index has exploded to crazy new highs.

I created a chart that tracks the PRICE CHANGES of buying a hypothetical 2yr old, low mile car at wholesale for $15,000 with the intent to sell it for 18-$20k for a $2,500 gross (after all related expenses). In May 2017, the Used Car Market took off to new highs pushing the relative cost of that same 2yr old, low mile used car from $15k to $16,500 to $17,000. Either the dealer charges more, or, the $15,000 buy is less car than it was just 18 months ago (e.g. higher miles, lower trim, etc).

upload_2019-3-20_19-19-9.png
Add to this rising interest rates and we've got a soft marketplace and some dealer margin compression goin' on.
 

jon.berna

D.R. Truth
Nov 14, 2011
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Jon
Today we started a very comprehensive analysis on vehicle price change data versus leads, vdps and all of the vehicle data. Database has the nightly change data on ~700k vehicles. I was thinking to also join it to the sales data like term, payment etc. this pushed me over the edge.

I think I already know what it's going to say...
 
Dec 19, 2018
196
211
143
First Name
Bill
I'm helping my brother shop for a new ride. The pop-ups and floating chat windows on dealer sites are driving him nuts. I'm watching him "chase & kill the chat box". It's breaking his concentration.

Is there a way to measure chat users 'silent frustration'? Something like: (# of Chats -divided by- # of closed chat windows)...

Randomly came across this today. Dealers do know they can ask the chat providers to have the chat box turned off once the customer "kills" the chat box..... right?
 

joe.pistell

Uncle Joe
Apr 7, 2009
4,250
1,740
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Joe
11yrs ago I started this thread. Today, I announce another shift in my life. Here's my LI announcement.

With heartfelt gratitude & admiration of what Alex Vetter and Brian Kramer are building at Cars Inc, I announce that I am resigning my position as head of marketplace for cars.com and returning to my world of self-employment.

I’ll have my hands in anything that lights up my fire. I’ll be sharing automotive strategic thoughts and ideas. My inspiration takes me down the path less traveled, I’ll also be returning to writing mathematical stock trading algorithms (the work has parallels to automotive, see my US Patent https://lnkd.in/eqBehDBu)

I would love to thank the people along my amazing journey.
Scott Portuondo for sucking me into automotive retail!
TY to The Used Car King Todd Caputo for trusting his gut and giving me the freedom (& budget) to build the most awesome in-house car dealer website ever. TY to HomeNet's CEO Jesse Biter for appreciating my platform feedback and partnering with us to our indie site. TY to HN's project manager Matt Scalcione for taking 100's of photoshop mocks and turning them into our site.

TY to Alex Snyder, Rick Gibbs and & Alex Vetter for seeing my body of work with the amazing UsedCarKing.com and recruiting me into the vendor space. To my BFF Bob George at DDC, you (& your fam) are a multi-tasking treasure and had I been able to convince leaders of our joint potential, OUR two patents were only the beginning!!

Lastly, super TY to Jeff Kershner & Alex Snyder for creating DealerRefresh.com. The dealer forum for dealers, by dealers. It allowed me to freely share and learn. DR is a treasure in our space.

I'm back to my happy place, the lab.
#UncleJoe #automotive
#inspiration
 
Dec 19, 2018
196
211
143
First Name
Bill
I’ll have my hands in anything that lights up my fire. I’ll be sharing automotive strategic thoughts and ideas. My inspiration takes me down the path less traveled, I’ll also be returning to writing mathematical stock trading algorithms (the work has parallels to automotive, see my US Patent https://lnkd.in/eqBehDBu)
Best of luck to you in your new adventure. I don't think anyone doubts that you will kill whatever you do. I would be interested to know more about your stock trading endeavor. Avid trader here.
 
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joe.pistell

Uncle Joe
Apr 7, 2009
4,250
1,740
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First Name
Joe
Bill, a fellow trader, nice! I am a technical trader (a chart reader) since the 90's. As a hobby, I write mathematical algorithms to scan markets to look for 'setups' that may produce profitable outcomes. I use machine learning to help find chart patterns the eye can't see.

Of interest to us all, this chart is $UGA, gasoline wholesale. $UGA's uptrend (green line) has broke and has fallen 30% since June, and is now forming a down trend (red line).

IMPORTANT: The chart below is gasbuddy retail prices paid, it's down 20% from its high. Retail gas always follows wholesale, so, look for gas at the pump to fall another 10%-ish rather quickly (about 40 cents).

Pickup truck demand should improve with $3.50 gas at the pump.

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