Ask any car dealer how many customers have walked on the lot and said: "I have no idea what I want;
A study conducted by Black Horse found that 19% of buyers changed their mind about the car they wanted after visiting a dealership.
Auto Trader's Car Buyers Report found that two-thirds of buyers changed their mind about the make/model they initially considered during the shopping process.
A
utotrader found that 30% switched between new and used vehicles.
Every customer either wants a brand, a model, something extremely specific, or is a get-me-done when they approach the dealership.
The
19% number supports my argument:
The vehicle a customer walks into the dealership wanting isn't necessarily the vehicle that's actually right for them.
And the Auto Trader research shows the problem starts
even earlier: consumers are still changing their minds about make/model while they're researching.
The Cox 2025 national study of 2,344 recent buyers,
71% said they entered the process unsure of which vehicle they would buy.
When they're hitting the dealership website, they have landed there from a different research experience telling them that dealership has that car. That could be Cars.com, Autotrader, Google search, or AI pointing at that dealership.
I agree with that, the dealership website is more likely not the beginning of the shopping journey.
Cox's data supports that. Third-party sites are heavily used, and dealership websites are important later in the journey. The 2025 study found buyers used an average of 4.6 sites, with 75% using third-party sites and 59% using dealership websites.
So when you say: When they get to the dealer website, they're probably further down the funnel.
I agree but you can't then say Therefore they already know exactly what vehicle they want. The data does not support that.
Customers come to dealers with a mission.
I agree.
The disagreement is your saying they only come because they want a F150 and I'm saying yes you could be correct but they could also be there because they've got a camper to pull, dislikes trucks but believe that's what they need.
Your saying that person doesn't exist anywhere on the entire planet and I'm saying the data doesn't support that so your response is I must be an AI?
Now, the studies you chose are gold to me. Cox Automotive Studies.
Your AI didn't realize that I used to work there. I spent nearly 8 years at Dealer.com building product. I was deep into how research is conducted.
News flash: we were always guessing at what motivated shoppers. We had no great intelligence. Cox liked to do surveys, but those had their flaws. Our bias was lead gen. It was the only thing dealers measured us on. We had zero insight into what happened after a lead was submitted. And no technology or study will ever tell you what psychology happens when a customer is sitting in front of a salesman. You have to be an asphalt-hitting commission-earner to get it.
Lol, talk about throwing your last employee under the bus.
Fair enough don't trust Cox!
However if 71–83% of shoppers don't know the specific vehicle they want when they begin shopping, I don't think the correct conclusion is that the data is useless because we can't observe everything that happens after that!
A good salesperson doesn't normally start with: Here's our inventory. Go find something.
They ask questions.
"What are you trying to accomplish?"
"Who's going to drive it?"
"How are you going to use it?"
"What's important to you?"
"What's your budget?"
Your first study was with NIADA about Independent shoppers. Well, that's a different animal entirely. Those people want a payment, and the actual car they want is secondary. They don't have the income or credit to qualify for a loan at a franchised store, so their options are limited, and they know it.
You sure do group people together a lot...lol
Cox says independent buyers are more driven by necessity, financial pressure, urgent transportation needs and constrained credit situations.
That's different from saying:
“They don't have the income or credit to qualify at a franchised store.”
Cox's broader 2,344-person study independently reaches the same general conclusion.
It's not just the independent-dealer study.
Only 29% knew the exact vehicle they wanted when they started shopping. 71% didn't.
"This ain't a bus stop" is what my first used car manager used to say in a gruff voice every time a customer was walking the lot without being upped. Those of us who have paid our bills on commissions from selling cars know that no customer comes to a dealership for the sheer joy of it (unless you're a Ferrari store). They come with a purpose, a mission, and the website is where they go to collect a little information to determine whether they're going to visit that dealership. It isn't a tool to decide whether they want an SUV or a Sedan.
I actually agree with you on the first part: this ain't a bus stop. People don't wake up and visit a dealership website for entertainment. They have a reason for being there.
If the argument is that the dealership website is generally later in the journey than Google, Autotrader, KBB, etc., I agree. Cox's own research supports that. In its 2025 study, 65% of buyers had established contact with a dealership before visiting in-store, and Cox's broader research shows buyers use multiple channels throughout the journey.
But "I have a mission" isn't the same thing as "I know exactly which vehicle I want."
I'm saying people walk into dealerships not knowing what car they want and I'm showing the data to support this and your saying that in the history of the world it has never happened and to even think it I must be an AI.
