My last post was too promotionally focused. I just want to say, if you are going to buy and sell Teslas, know the information on the software page of the desplay and the AVI you can find by pressing a button from the softward page. The difference from KBB and others' valuation can swing by up to $9,000 and buyers are picking off dealers because they sometimes know more than the dealer. Dealers should know the cars better than consumers. Every Tesla listing on dealers sites should include these to pictures, if not first and second among pictures, then second and third.
The
Tale of 4 Teslas and the
Shepherds are coming (to pick off dealers that don't know what is going on in autonomy)
In and efforts to foster discussion and help add value to the forum, as well as help you deal more profitably with the Tesla cars you buy and sell, I offer this tale of 4 seeming similar vehicles.
Market Value WattMatters Value
1. White 2023 Model Y AWD 30000 miles (HW3, Autopilot) $30,000 $27,110-$29,180
2. White 2023 Model Y AWD 30000 miles (HW3, FSD included package) $30,000 $31,310-$34,900
3 White 2023 Model Y AWD 30000 miles (HW4, Autopilot or FSD subscription) $30,000 $29,610-$31,680
4. White 2023 Model Y AWD 30000 miles (HW4. FSD Included package) $30.000 $33,810-$37,400
Potentially a $10,000 difference right now if a dealer doesn't pay attention to the guts of the vehicle and understand the value. This difference is likely to expand. Tesla sold FSD most recently for $8,000 but ended the sales in February of 2026. In the used car market, during the last 2-3 years, FSD could add a few thousand to the sale or perhaps just enable the car to sell more quickly.
As Tesla marches toward full autonomy for its cars, we can expect the premium that a Tesla with FSD included package will bring will expand for three reasons. First it is no longer available on new cars and those that want FSD must pay Tesla monthly for a subscription. Currently, this is $99/month. Second, I imagine the subscription will likely double when we no longer have to occupy the driver's seat and can sleep or work on our way to our destination (this is coming in the next 12 months).
The third reason that cars that have a pathway toward full autonomy will command a higher premium is the best for Tesla owners with such cars. Musk has committed to Tesla owners for the last 10 years that when they reach full autonomy and start the robotaxi rideshare network that they will be able to put their cars into this Tesla managed network and allow their cars to go to work fully autonomous. Musk calls these Tesla owners Shepherds, watching over their fleet of one or more Teslas. Even though many, or even most, can't imagine strangers in their cars, more than a few will as the revenue potential is potentially great. This has not been a major issue as remains uncertain of the timing of when this network might open but we are getting much closer. As this nears, you can expect Teslas that are autonomy ready or ones that have a pathway to autonomy will command an increasing premium.
Economics of a Robotaxi Fleet
1. Purchase an autonomy ready level Tesla with FSD paid for $33-38k -Once the network opens, earn about $30 in net income for 5-7 years
2. Purchase a HW4 with no FSD or under subscription for $30-34k, risk subscription increases and make similar flow at 1 minus subscription coss
3. Purchase a HW3 vehicle with FSD included package for $20-30k and wait for Tesla to upgrade and then have similar earnings.
4. HW3 without FSD included package......... these are dead to the coming autonomy
What is a car (or a golden goose) worth that can operate autonomously and earn net $30k per year for 5 years or more, generating $150,000 of income to the owner. Who wouldn't pay $60-75k for such a goose?
I would argue that all Teslas in year 2024 and later will see a significant value increase when autonomy is solved, even if the current owner isn't using the capability. Older Teslas with a pathway will increase along with their newer friends as long as Tesla does what they promised time and time again and most recently on the last quarterly earnings call.
This technology will not only help the 6-8 million Americans that have either lost their license for age deterioration or should have their license pulled and the busy executive commuting an hour to work and another hour back, giving her back 2 hours a day of productivity or rest. What would our customers pay for such a leapfrog in value.
As we approach Tesla autonomy (others are at least a few (5?) years behind), expect to start seeing shepherds on your lots, scouting out if they can reduce their cost of capital by purchasing a Tesla with a pathway to autonomy that the dealer and the market has not yet fully valued. Yes, shepherds like me.
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