Do Customers Really Want Electric Vehicles?

[john.quinn]

If you've ever driven an EV for a few weeks, ICE seems soooo last century.. (kinda like me! hahaha )

Didn't you and Todd visit DDC Burlington in a Leaf or something god-awful like that way back when? I remember the debate about taking the ferry...

 

[John Lynch]

If you've ever driven an EV for a few weeks, ICE seems soooo last century.. (kinda like me! hahaha )

My last post was too promotionally focused. I just want to say, if you are going to buy and sell Teslas, know the information on the software page of the desplay and the AVI you can find by pressing a button from the softward page. The difference from KBB and others' valuation can swing by up to $9,000 and buyers are picking off dealers because they sometimes know more than the dealer. Dealers should know the cars better than consumers. Every Tesla listing on dealers sites should include these to pictures, if not first and second among pictures, then second and third.

 

[John Lynch]

My last post was too promotionally focused. I just want to say, if you are going to buy and sell Teslas, know the information on the software page of the desplay and the AVI you can find by pressing a button from the softward page. The difference from KBB and others' valuation can swing by up to $9,000 and buyers are picking off dealers because they sometimes know more than the dealer. Dealers should know the cars better than consumers. Every Tesla listing on dealers sites should include these to pictures, if not first and second among pictures, then second and third.

The Tale of 4 Teslas and the Shepherds are coming (to pick off dealers that don't know what is going on in autonomy)

In and efforts to foster discussion and help add value to the forum, as well as help you deal more profitably with the Tesla cars you buy and sell, I offer this tale of 4 seeming similar vehicles.
Market Value WattMatters Value
1. White 2023 Model Y AWD 30000 miles (HW3, Autopilot) $30,000 $27,110-$29,180
2. White 2023 Model Y AWD 30000 miles (HW3, FSD included package) $30,000 $31,310-$34,900
3 White 2023 Model Y AWD 30000 miles (HW4, Autopilot or FSD subscription) $30,000 $29,610-$31,680
4. White 2023 Model Y AWD 30000 miles (HW4. FSD Included package) $30.000 $33,810-$37,400

Potentially a $10,000 difference right now if a dealer doesn't pay attention to the guts of the vehicle and understand the value. This difference is likely to expand. Tesla sold FSD most recently for $8,000 but ended the sales in February of 2026. In the used car market, during the last 2-3 years, FSD could add a few thousand to the sale or perhaps just enable the car to sell more quickly.

As Tesla marches toward full autonomy for its cars, we can expect the premium that a Tesla with FSD included package will bring will expand for three reasons. First it is no longer available on new cars and those that want FSD must pay Tesla monthly for a subscription. Currently, this is $99/month. Second, I imagine the subscription will likely double when we no longer have to occupy the driver's seat and can sleep or work on our way to our destination (this is coming in the next 12 months).

The third reason that cars that have a pathway toward full autonomy will command a higher premium is the best for Tesla owners with such cars. Musk has committed to Tesla owners for the last 10 years that when they reach full autonomy and start the robotaxi rideshare network that they will be able to put their cars into this Tesla managed network and allow their cars to go to work fully autonomous. Musk calls these Tesla owners Shepherds, watching over their fleet of one or more Teslas. Even though many, or even most, can't imagine strangers in their cars, more than a few will as the revenue potential is potentially great. This has not been a major issue as remains uncertain of the timing of when this network might open but we are getting much closer. As this nears, you can expect Teslas that are autonomy ready or ones that have a pathway to autonomy will command an increasing premium.

Economics of a Robotaxi Fleet
1. Purchase an autonomy ready level Tesla with FSD paid for $33-38k -Once the network opens, earn about $30 in net income for 5-7 years
2. Purchase a HW4 with no FSD or under subscription for $30-34k, risk subscription increases and make similar flow at 1 minus subscription coss
3. Purchase a HW3 vehicle with FSD included package for $20-30k and wait for Tesla to upgrade and then have similar earnings.
4. HW3 without FSD included package......... these are dead to the coming autonomy

What is a car (or a golden goose) worth that can operate autonomously and earn net $30k per year for 5 years or more, generating $150,000 of income to the owner. Who wouldn't pay $60-75k for such a goose?

I would argue that all Teslas in year 2024 and later will see a significant value increase when autonomy is solved, even if the current owner isn't using the capability. Older Teslas with a pathway will increase along with their newer friends as long as Tesla does what they promised time and time again and most recently on the last quarterly earnings call.

This technology will not only help the 6-8 million Americans that have either lost their license for age deterioration or should have their license pulled and the busy executive commuting an hour to work and another hour back, giving her back 2 hours a day of productivity or rest. What would our customers pay for such a leapfrog in value.

As we approach Tesla autonomy (others are at least a few (5?) years behind), expect to start seeing shepherds on your lots, scouting out if they can reduce their cost of capital by purchasing a Tesla with a pathway to autonomy that the dealer and the market has not yet fully valued. Yes, shepherds like me.

 

[joe.pistell]

The Tale of 4 Teslas and the Shepherds are coming (to pick off dealers that don't know what is going on in autonomy)

John get's my vote for

​

POST OF THE YEAR​

Experts Sharing Knowledge.
This... is what DR is all about

p.s. he's got a cool service too: WattMatters - EV Hardware Intelligence

 

[John Lynch]

John get's my vote for

​

POST OF THE YEAR​

Experts Sharing Knowledge.
This... is what DR is all about

p.s. he's got a cool service too: WattMatters - EV Hardware Intelligence

John get's my vote for

​

POST OF THE YEAR​

Experts Sharing Knowledge.
This... is what DR is all about

p.s. he's got a cool service too: WattMatters - EV Hardware Intelligence

A few people have reached out since this post asking how to actually identify the hardware in practice, which screen to look at, what to
look for, how to tell HW3 from HW4 when you're standing on a lot
evaluating a trade.

Since I get this question a lot, I'll share what I built to solve it
for myself and I'd genuinely love feedback from people who work
with these cars every day.

Two screens on the Tesla's own touchscreen tell you everything:

1. Tap the car icon (bottom left), scroll to Software. This shows
the AI Computer generation (HW3 vs HW4), FSD status (whether it
was purchased outright or is on subscription), and the software
version.

2. On that same page, tap the blue "Additional Vehicle Information"
link. This shows the MCU chip (Intel Atom vs AMD Ryzen), plus
options like tow package, HEPA filter, and rear-facing seats.

Those two screens tell you what KBB, Carfax, and the VIN decoder
can't, and they're right there on every Tesla, no tools required.

I got tired of explaining this manually so I built a tool that reads
both screens from photos and returns a hardware-adjusted valuation automatically. Takes about 60 seconds per car.

Here's where I'd genuinely value input from dealers who actually
work this market:

- Does the valuation output give you something useful at the point
of acquisition or pricing, or does it need to present differently
to fit how you actually work?
- What's missing that would make this more useful on your lot?
- Are there hardware configurations you're seeing in the wild that
you think we're not accounting for?

If you want to try it on your own inventory and share what you find
go to wattmatters.ai/trial and enter code DEALERREFRESH. Free 15-day access, no credit card. I'm less interested in converting anyone
right now than in getting honest feedback from people who see more Teslas in a week than most people see in a year.

John Lynch
[email protected]

 

[John Lynch]

A few people have reached out since this post asking how to actually identify the hardware in practice, which screen to look at, what to
look for, how to tell HW3 from HW4 when you're standing on a lot
evaluating a trade.

Since I get this question a lot, I'll share what I built to solve it
for myself and I'd genuinely love feedback from people who work
with these cars every day.

Two screens on the Tesla's own touchscreen tell you everything:

1. Tap the car icon (bottom left), scroll to Software. This shows
the AI Computer generation (HW3 vs HW4), FSD status (whether it
was purchased outright or is on subscription), and the software
version.

2. On that same page, tap the blue "Additional Vehicle Information"
link. This shows the MCU chip (Intel Atom vs AMD Ryzen), plus
options like tow package, HEPA filter, and rear-facing seats.

Those two screens tell you what KBB, Carfax, and the VIN decoder
can't, and they're right there on every Tesla, no tools required.

I got tired of explaining this manually so I built a tool that reads
both screens from photos and returns a hardware-adjusted valuation automatically. Takes about 60 seconds per car.

Here's where I'd genuinely value input from dealers who actually
work this market:

- Does the valuation output give you something useful at the point
of acquisition or pricing, or does it need to present differently
to fit how you actually work?
- What's missing that would make this more useful on your lot?
- Are there hardware configurations you're seeing in the wild that
you think we're not accounting for?

If you want to try it on your own inventory and share what you find
go to wattmatters.ai/trial and enter code DEALERREFRESH. Free 15-day access, no credit card. I'm less interested in converting anyone
right now than in getting honest feedback from people who see more Teslas in a week than most people see in a year.

John Lynch
[email protected]

Excited that WattMatters sister company, BeVoltWise, focused on consumers wanting to buy used Tesla cars will be featured on Brian White's Future AZA podcast on Sunday on Youtube. It will be posted there for posterity. This is where consumers learn about finding and pricing the value in Tesla Vehicles. WattMatters.ai helps dealers do the same. Together we discover the best prices and facilitate sales more quickly. Dealers selling Tesla cars really need to include a picture of the software page and the AVI page to find the real value of the car.